TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 10 | 5:00 PM, 23 July 2023
Severe Tropical Storm #EgayPH (DOKSURI)
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
EGAY FURTHER INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD
Location of Center (4:00 PM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 560 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (15.0°N, 128.1°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa.
Present Movement: West northwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 500 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Catanduanes, eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion), northern portion of Aurora (Casiguran, Dilasag), eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan) and eastern portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca)
The northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Oras, Arteche, Jipapad) and the eastern portion of Northern Samar (Lapinig, Gamay, Mapanas, Palapag, Laoang, Catubig, Pambujan)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall today
• 50-100 mm: Catanduanes
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow
• 100-200 mm: Catanduanes
• 50-100 mm: Cagayan, eastern section of Isabela, Polilio Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Albay
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Tuesday
• >200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte
• 100-200 mm: Apayao, Abra, the rest of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and the rest of Cagayan
• 50-100 mm: Pangasinan, Isabela, and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional rains over several areas of the country in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #2 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook issued at 4:00 PM today.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds (i.e., strong breeze to near gale strength) are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is currently in effect. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 3 or 4, potentially over Extreme Northern Luzon. However, should a southward shift in the track occur, higher wind signals may be hoisted.
EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
•Today: MIMAROPA, Visayas, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga.
•Tomorrow: CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga.
•Tuesday: Most of Luzon and Visayas, the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, and Dinagat islands
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of EGAY, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 issued at 5:00 PM today.
In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring rough seas (2.8 to 3.5 m) over the coastal waters along the eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao that are outside the Gale Warning area. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
•EGAY is forecast track west northwestward or westward in the next 12 hours. Afterwards, it will turn generally northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. Although the latest track forecast shows that EGAY will remain offshore for most of the forecast period, a close approach or landfall in the vicinity of Extreme Northern Luzon is still not ruled out based on the forecast confidence cone. On the track forecast, EGAY will be closest to Extreme Northern Luzon on Wednesday and make landfall over the east coast of Taiwan on Thursday morning.
•Based on current and forecast behavior of the ridge of high pressure to the north of EGAY, a “westward shift” in the track forecast remains a possibility.
•EGAY is forecast to reach typhoon category within 24 hours and may become a super typhoon on Tuesday. Rapid intensification is likely within the next 72 hours due to favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. A slight weakening trend may begin on Wednesday and will continue until EGAY makes landfall over Taiwan. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan will result in further weakening – a trend which will continue until the tropical cyclone makes another landfall on mainland China.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST – PAGASA