TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 10 Tropical Storm #PaengPH (NALGAE)
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 10
Tropical Storm #PaengPH (NALGAE)
Issued at 2:00 PM, 28 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today
“PAENG” CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING CLOSER TO EASTERN SAMAR-NORTHERN SAMAR AREA
Location of Center (1:00 PM)
The center of Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Guiuan Doppler Weather Radar at 155 km East Northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 245 km East Southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.0°N, 126.8°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 992 hPa
Westward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to
480 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Marinduque, the northern portion of Romblon (Calatrava, San Andres, San Agustin, Romblon, Corcuera, Banton, Concepcion, Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang), Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the eastern portion of Batangas (Lobo, Taysan, Rosario, Padre Garcia, San Juan, Lipa City, Santo Tomas), and the sounteastern portion of Laguna (Alaminos, San Pablo City, Rizal, Nagcarlan, Majayjay, Luisiana, Cavinti, Paete, Kalayaan, Santa Maria, Mabitac, Pakil, Famy, Siniloan, Pangil, Lumban, Liliw)
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and the northern portion of Leyte (San Isidro, Calubian, Tabango, Leyte, Capoocan, Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Tanauan, Dagami, Pastrana, Jaro, Kananga, Villaba, Tunga, Tabontabon, Tolosa)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
The rest of Romblon, the rest of Laguna, Rizal, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, the rest of Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the central and southern portions of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, City of Santiago, Cordon, Echague, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Angadanan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, San Mateo, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Palanan, Aurora, Burgos, San Manuel, Gamu, Ilagan City, Divilacan), Ifugao, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Cervantes, Alilem, Suyo, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay), and the southwestern portion of Mountain Province (Bauko, Sabangan, Tadian)
Southern Leyte, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Siquijor, and the rest of Leyte
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, City of Tandag, Bayabas, Cagwait, San Miguel, Tago, Marihatag), Agusan del Norte, the northeastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat), Camiguin, and the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Balingoan, Kinoguitan)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• Today through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Quezon, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and the rest of CALABARZON and Mindanao.
• Tomorrow morning through Sunday morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Aurora, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Metro Manila, mainland Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Heavy rain areas may be updated in the succeeding bulletins should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of PAENG.
• Winds may reach gale-force strength during the passage of PAENG within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is hoisted throughout the entire passage of PAENG.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3 in anticipation of storm-force conditions associated with PAENG.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Provinces, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, the eastern portions of Isabela, and the northern portion of Apayao.
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Bicol Region, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the eastern portion of Aurora, the northern and eastern portions of Northern Samar, and the eastern portion of Eastern Samar. For more information refer to Storm Surge Watch #2 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #10 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving westward or west northwestward in the next 12 hours. Due to the westward movement of this tropical cyclone, a landfall scenario or close approach to Eastern Samar or Northern Samar this afternoon or tonight is not ruled out. Afterwards, PAENG will move generally west northwestward and may traverse the Bicol Region tonight through tomorrow morning. Between tomorrow afternoon and evening, the center of PAENG may make another landfall over the east coast of Quezon (including Polillo Islands) or Aurora.
• PAENG is forecast to further intensify while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category within 24 hours.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.